A Paleoclimatic Context for the European Great Famine of 1315-1317

The Great Famine (1315-1317), a catastrophic European calamity in which millions starved, triggered one of the worst population collapses in European history. Historical records point to torrential rainfall, prolonged flooding, and cold temperatures as important climatic drivers of the event. Here we use the tree-ring based Old World Drought Atlas to go beyond qualitative documentary evidence to make quantitative estimates of the climatic conditions during the Great Famine. Between 1290-2000 C.E., 1314-1316 is one of the wettest three-year intervals over much of Europe. Multiple logistic regressions demonstrate that population and climate are significant predictors of European famines until 1710, after which social and political pressures become dominant controls. Population in the UK and France, the two countries impacted by the Great Famine with available population estimates during that time, was not exceptionally large relative to other medieval famine years, suggesting that the Great Famine was likely elevated to catastrophic levels due to extreme meteorological conditions.