2,000 Years of Hurricane Activity on the Eastern Yucatan Peninsula: Climate Drivers and Mayan Cultural Implications

The role of drought in the collapse of the Mayan empire (~late 10^th century C.E.) has been widely explored, but little is known regarding how or if hurricanes contributed to Mayan cultural dissolution and a coetaneous depopulation of the Yucatan Peninsula. While paleo-hurricane reconstructions utilizing coarse grained sediment overwash have been developed elsewhere in the Caribbean, uncertainty exists regarding hurricane variability during the Classic Mayan period and the mechanisms influencing such activity across the Yucatan. Modern Atlantic hurricane genesis is tied to the latitudinal position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The ITCZ (a low-latitude convective band) migrates meridionally following the Earth's thermal equator. Model outputs forecast a northern ITCZ during the 21^st century, a displacement that is expected to steer storms towards the Mexican, and U.S. coasts. Paleo-records of ITCZ migration reveal a northerly displaced ITCZ during the Mayan Terminus (800-1000 CE) and a predominately southern position during the Little Ice Age (1500 - 1800 CE). Here we present a high-resolution, 2,000 year long record of hurricane activity from sediment cores (sedimentation rate ~0.57 cm/year) collected in a sinkhole south of Tulum, Mexico. This record suggests increasing storm frequency from the late pre-classic Mayan period into the Terminal Classic Collapse (400 - 1000 CE) that is coincident with a northerly shifted ITCZ, and reduced storm frequency over the Yucatan during the Little Ice Age. These reconstructions allow us to better define spatial and temporal linkages between large-scale climate systems, regional precipitation, and localized storm events while offering critical insight into past cultural resiliency during increased climate stressors.