Resilient and sustainable infrastructure decision-making through consideration of persistent and long-term uncertainties imposed by extreme weather events

The U.S. Global Change Research Program indicates that "Global average sea levels are expected to continue to rise, by at least several inches in the next 15 years and by 1-4 feet by 2100". The expected sea-level rise (SLR) on the East and Gulf Coasts of the United States would be higher than the global average. This projected SLR coupled with other climate-induced impacts such as more frequent and intense heavy precipitation events and hurricanes may result in more frequent storm surges and increased tidal floods (nuisance floods). This could increase recurring damage to municipal infrastructure, including waste management facilities. The potential for climate-induced impacts thus creates an immediate concern for the security and resiliency of communities, specifically coastal communities. The goal for this project was to devise a method to aid communities in (1) understanding the effects of climate-induced extreme weather events (e.g., SLR, storm surge, flooding, tidal flooding), (2) evaluating these impacts on the operation of waste management facilities and (3) developing adaptation strategies to increase their resilience to climate change. Climate-induced impacts on coastal communities can include one or more of the following: 1) extreme and prolonged high temperatures, 2) heavy precipitation events, and 3) increased rates of SLR and higher storm surges. First, vulnerabilities to these impacts which can affect siting, treatment and disposal of municipal waste facilities are identified and analyzed. We use analytical methods to present community characteristics at multiple spatial scales and U.S. EPA-developed models to evaluate site-specific characteristics of the waste infrastructure. Results allow us to examine life-cycle economic and environmental impacts of infrastructure operations under different scenarios of climate-induced impacts. The method outlines how management plans can be modified to robustly incorporate resiliency and sustainability goals such that method is demonstrated for City of Norfolk, Virginia and surrounding area. The results from this project can help communities gain a better understanding of the nature of climate-induced impacts, and how those impacts can affect infrastructure and long-term planning needs.