Closing the Gap between Fossil Fuel Production Plans and Climate Change Mitigation Goals

There is increasing recognition that an "emissions gap" exists between national commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and the Paris Agreement target of keeping global warming well below 2°C. Less appreciated, however, is the equally concerning "production gap" between the Paris Agreement goals and countries plans for fossil fuel production. Governments are planning to produce far more coal, oil, and gas than would be compatible with 1.5° and 2°C mitigation pathways. In this presentation, we will outline key findings from our newly released "Production Gap Report", demonstrating that the global production gap is even larger than the already significant global emissions gap. The production gap is estimated by comparing a global trajectory of fossil fuel production (derived from national plans and projections of ten major producing countries) with production levels that are compatible with 1.5° and 2°C mitigation pathways. We will explore how the US - currently the world's largest oil and gas producer - contributes to widening the global production gap, and outline policy options available to narrow the gap while also supporting those affected by the associated energy transition.