Analysis of the future flood risk in Korea using 26 GCMs

The regional impacts of climate change associated with future flood risk to Korea were analyzed using 26 GCMs results according to different RCP scenarios. Downscaled future rainfall data of 26 GCMs were collected from the Climate Change Adaptation for Water resources(CCAW) research center to analyze extreme rainfall variability. The constrained multi-linear regression method was used to evaluate future flood risk for 113 mid-size watersheds which cover the whole country. Results demonstrated that flood risk in the southern part, Kyungi and Kangwon provinces of Korea increases. To establish the optimal flood risk management strategy, current status of 4 different countermeasures such as river improvement rate, pumping capacity, drainage system, and detention basin capacity was analyzed. Several multi criteria decision making methods were used to obtain the optimal countermeasure combinations. Results showed that proper flood defense scheme allows us to manage the expected flood risk increase.

Acknowledgment: This work was supported by the Korea Environment Industry & Technology Institute (KEITI) through Advanced Water Management Research Program, funded by the Korea Ministry of Environment (Grant. 83067).