Identifying Population Vulnerability to Malaria in Myanmar

Myanmar carries a heavy malaria burden within Southeast Asia with only 4% of the region's population but 20% of its malaria. With the emergence of arteminisin resistant parasites in the country, malaria elimination is of great priority. Malaria prevalence varies across the country with the state of Rakhine having one of the highest malaria prevalence values. Apart from identifying environmental factors that control malaria vector prevalence, understanding human presence and use of the landscape is essential for modeling malaria prevalence. To identify 'Who's at risk?' within the region we need to better understand where people are and how they are utilizing their landscape. We present a dasymetric method using ancillary datasets produced specifically for Myanmar for re-distributing population within Myanmar. Our Myanmar-specific ancillary datasets consist of a land cover and land use basemap developed for the region that identifies landscape objects which increase human exposure or provide vector habitat, and a recently developed map of rural settlements in the region at the Landsat resolution. Additionally, we use the land cover land use basemap to determine occupation-related exposure to the population. To identify population vulnerability within the region we use this downscaled population distribution along with occupation-related exposure, access to care, and malaria prevalence. The population exposure and vulnerability to malaria is designed to be combined with environmental factors that determine vector abundance to provide a malaria burden potential, which will be used in a Myanmar Malaria Early Warning System (MMEWS).