Lessons Learned from Three Years of Monitoring Cholera

Cholera is a waterborne disease caused by Vibrio Cholerae and is prevalent in areas with poor water and sanitation (WASH) infrastructure. Yemen is currently experiencing one of the largest outbreaks of cholera, whose collapsing water infrastructure can be contributed to the ongoing Yemeni Civil War. The occurrence and growth of the vibirios has been linked to climatic variables, which was used to develop a mathematical model to predict the risk of cholera for an area. Using satellite derived data on precipitation, temperature, population density and the available water and sanitation infrastructure, a near real time algorithm was developed to predict the risk of an outbreak of cholera for an area four week in advance. Using quantitative results of cholera risk and the qualitative understanding of sociological and demographical factors, this study will evaluate the response of cholera mitigation and intervention in the region (at county scale) over the past three years. We will discuss the importance of several intervention strategies that were employed to combat cholera (WASH, vaccinations, etc.), and will shed insights on the future of hydrological surveillance of cholera and other water-borne diseases.