Elevation Dependent Warming in the Eastern Siberian Arctic

Many studies of elevation-dependent warming (EDW) in mid-latitudes indicate that both recent decadal and future projected warming rates are greater at higher elevations. We examine EDW at high northern latitudes and its connection to Arctic amplification in eastern Siberia (50-70N; 80-180E). We analyze the high emissions scenarios (RCP8.5) of global climate model projections for the end of the 21st century. Arctic amplification has a strong effect on warming rates with greater warming rates at higher latitudes, particularly in winter, and latitudinal gradients of about 0.2 degrees C per degree of latitude in winter. Because the warming rate in the Arctic region is about twice the global average, the proximity of this high latitude region to the Arctic Ocean appears to be a major factor for these latitudinal gradients. Within specific latitude zones, we also find EDW, but unlike most mid-latitude locations where warming rates increase at higher elevations, we find that future warming rates are smaller at higher elevations, particularly during winter. We show that these results are statistically significant and provide an analysis of mechanisms responsible for this somewhat counterintuitive result.