Use of Earth Observation data for assessing change in mangrove cover across the Belize Barrier Reef Reserve System-World Heritage Site

While mangrove ecosystems comprise only ~5% of Belize's total forest cover, the critical ecosystem services they do provide are recognized in the country's Forests Act, which regulates the modification of mangrove ecosystems. From 2008-2009, the Government of Belize piloted a complete moratorium on mangrove clearing, building on the Forests Act. As Earth Observation (EO) systems provide a means to track effectiveness of Belize's management of its mangrove forests, this paper examines historic and recent changes in mangrove cover across all of Belize, applying statistical adjustments to rates of change derived from Landsat satellite data. Particular attention was given to the country's only World Heritage Site, the Belize Barrier Reef Reserve System (BBRRS), where all mangrove clearing was prohibited since the site's designation in December 1996. The data indicate that within the BBRRS, approx. 89 hectares were cleared between 1996 and 2017, compared to the estimated clearing of 2,703 hectares outside the BBRRS during the same period, and nationwide clearing of almost 4,100 hectares of mangrove ecosystems between 1980 and 2017. Thus, compared to the mangroves outside of the BBRRS, the annual rate of mangrove loss within the BBRRS over the period 1996-2017 was a mere 4.24 hectares per year, versus a rate of clearing of 129.11 hectares per year outside the BBRRS. Furthermore, almost 75% of the 1996-2017 mangrove clearings outside the BBRRS were concentrated in three particular geographic zones associated with tourism infrastructure. It was also estimated that Belize's overall mangrove cover declined by 5.4% over 36 years, from 76,250 hectares in 1980 to 72,169 hectares in 2017. This paper's methods serve as a proof of concept in illustrating how EO data can contribute to monitoring changes in baseline data and thus tracking of progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), in particular SDG Targets 13.3, 14.2, and 15.2 regarding climate change mitigation, and sustainable management of coastal ecosystems, and forests.