Implications of the Syrian Civil War and Migration Crisis on Virtual Water Trade

Mass migration events and civic conflicts have and will continue to generate significant international attention and geopolitical headaches. Moreover, as the world continues to face increasing environmental pressures, attention must be paid to the effect of such geopolitical events on global resources flows. While the concept of a virtual "water suitcase" associated with economic migration is not a new idea, this study focuses the virtual water lens on the Syrian civil conflict and its induced mass emigration. Using available agricultural trade data to infer virtual water fluxes and an aggregated synthetic control, the effects of the Syrian civil conflict on virtual water flux were analyzed from a direct, zero-order, perspective having to do with the conflict itself and an induced, first-order, perspective having to do with the mass migration. The results provide a narrative of considerable internal turmoil that weakened Syria's infrastructural and human production capabilities and was not simply supplemented by additional imports due to hindered trading abilities and displaced virtual water demand. This work yields considerable insight into the interrelated fluxes of human migration and virtual water and provides a methodology for evaluating the virtual water trade implications of major geopolitical shocks.