A Scalable Modeling Framework for the Sustainability of the Global Crop Supply Chain focusing on U.S.-China Interactions

Global crop supply chain faces the challenge of spatial and temporal mismatches in supply and demand. Long-distance shipping and storage balance these mismatches, but account for a sizeable part of global energy consumption and global CO₂ emission. Crop production is water-intensive, and is limited by the uneven distribution of water over regions and seasons. This project will develop a modeling framework that aims to understand how climate and socioeconomic changes affect the global crop supply chain, and the related energy and water sustainability at different spatial and temporal scales. Specifically, this project will focus on the U.S.-China trade on wheat and soybeans, and develop a supply chain model that includes all important players (producers, processors, wholesalers, retailers, consumers) at state/province level in both countries. This supply chain model will be coupled to the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), which provides the background food-energy-water system for the entire globe. The coupled model will conduct simulations using crop yield scenarios that are simulated by two state-of-the-art wheat and soybeans yield models (WheatGrow and CROPGRO-Soybean) using climate change scenarios, and scenarios of policy, economic, and technological changes. The final results will be analyzed using key performance indicators such as total energy consumption, local water consumption, profit, and fairness.