Electric Power Development Associated with the Belt and Road Initiative and Its Carbon Emissions Implications

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), proposed by China in October 2013, involves large-scale development of energy infrastructures in Asia, Africa, and Europe. From a climate perspective, development of the electric power sector in the BRI regions is of particular importance because: (1) the BRI regions are likely to have large additional demands for electricity due to large populations (presently >40% of world total) and large expected economic growth; (2) the electric power sector is a large carbon dioxide (CO₂) emitter, accounting for 42% of global CO₂ emissions from fuel combustion in 2016 (IEA, 2018); and (3) the fossil fuel-based power generation systems developed today would lock in CO₂ emissions for at least the next few decades.

In this work, we analyze publicly available information for 450 power plant development projects in 15 representative countries across the BRI regions in which Chinese contractors played a significant role. The time period for this analysis - between 2005 and 2019 - provides information on activities before and after initiation of the BRI. The data indicate that both total installed generation capacity and total number of signed projects for fossil fuel-fired power plants exhibit higher rates of increase after BRI was introduced. Hydroelectricity and wind power generation capacity have increased steadily through time. The number of solar photovoltaics (PV) projects has experienced dramatic increase since 2017, although the cumulative PV generation capacity is still low.

Since the beginning of BRI in 2013, 75% of new generation capacity has gone to fossil fuel-burning power plants, 14% has gone to hydroelectricity, 6% has gone to solar PV plants, 3% has gone to wind farms, and 2% has gone to others including solar thermal, biomass, geothermal, and so on. The committed CO₂ emissions (i.e., lifetime cumulative CO₂ emissions) for signed power plant projects in years after 2013 are on average higher than the ones before 2013. Based on current trends, the total BRI-associated power development in the 15 countries could generate 33 Gt of committed CO₂ emissions by the end of 2030, corresponding to 6-8% of the remaining carbon budget for the 1.5-degree climate goal. Extrapolation of these results to all BRI countries gives an estimate of 49 Gt CO₂ for cumulative committed emissions by 2030.