A Multiplayer Microeconomic Framework for Integrating Multiscale Datasets and Models in the Food-Energy-Water Nexus

Modeling the Food-Energy-Water (FEW) Nexus in developing countries requires the integration of data from climate, hydrology, agriculture, engineering, energy, economics, and demography. Beyond statistical analyses, these data often need to be reconciled across different types of mathematical models, requiring not only data conversion, but also model coupling. We propose a partial-equilibrium modeling approach that can integrate multi-scale data and modeling approaches for food, energy, water dynamics in order to define, parameterize, and evaluate modeled processes nationally as well as across climate zones and communities. This partial-equilibrium approach represents the decision of multiple market actors, non-cooperatively maximizing their objective (typically profit or utility) with a detailed representation of the agro-economic properties of the regions in the country and the food markets therein, along with explicit hydrology, climate, and energy modeling. This detailed multiplayer, microeconomic (MME) modeling framework enables us to present the regionalized effects of policy changes to the country's food, energy, and water systems. We show it's applicability by coupling system dynamics across scales in a manner that allows us to quantify the sensitivity of critical human outcomes to development strategies and to climate or market induced shocks in sub-Saharan Africa. We also show how our MME model can be used to integrate approaches from different disciplines, including how to propagate information between coupled human and natural systems. Our framework is flexible for data integration in the FEW Nexus for studying both long-term planning, as well as resilience against shocks.