Potential environment stress of land and water in Brazil under future social-economic development pathways through global trade

As the biggest importer of Brazil's soybean, China's imports have exponentially increased by 2000% for its growing livestock demand since 2000, and led to massive deforestation of the Amazon rainforest for soybean expansion. China's soybean imports from Brazil will continue to grow to fulfill the enormous livestock demand increase from the fast social-economic development, increasing population and higher urbanization and living standards. It is necessary to establish a linkage between the upstream natural resources for soybean production to the end-user demand, an integrated biophysical and social-economic framework through land and water consumption for soybean production, and international trade of the whole supply chain will be developed by coupling the agricultural Agro-ecological Zone model and the environment extended input-output analysis. The future Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) from IIASA will be employed to identify the environment impact in Brazil under different development and climate projections in China. This model will be applied for comprehensive assessment on deforestation in Amazon under different climate projections, trade scenarios, agricultural policies and support the environmental protection, especially the rainforest conservation in Brazil, in the future.