Forest transitions in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest: has agricultural intensification ceded way to forest regeneration in this endangered biome?

In recent decades, changes in demographic patterns and agricultural practices have led to significant gains in forest cover in many tropical regions. Shifts from net deforestation to net reforestation are often referred as Forest Transition. Historically, this process has been associated with economic development, agricultural intensification, and rural labor scarcity, where forest regeneration usually occurs in abandoned and marginal agricultural lands that are less suitable for large-scale mechanized agriculture. Here we use over 30 years of detailed land cover data from the Mapbiomas project (1985-2017) to study forest transition processes in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, an endangered tropical biome with reported increases in forest cover in recent decades. We also used generalized linear mixed effects models to investigate the main socioeconomic, landscape and biophysical drivers of forest transitions in the region at both a local (municipality) and regional (state) scales. Deforestation was prevalent in the biome between 1985 and 2000, however, after the early 2000s some regions started to have significant net increases in forest cover. Gains in forest cover after 2000 occurred mostly in the more developed southern and southeastern portions of the biome, which are characterized by having higher GDP and Human Development Index; heavily mechanized agriculture; higher population density (including higher urban/rural population ratios); and greater number of protected areas. Our results show that, although deforestation remains a major concern in the Atlantic Forest, some regions are going through a forest transition process, which may support current conservation efforts in the biome. The patterns we observed are consistent with what has been reported for developed countries, suggesting that economic development, demographic shifts and agricultural intensification can also lead to forest recovery in developing tropical regions.