Novel statistical modeling tools for identifying thresholds and phase shifts in coastal ice cover

Over the past four decades, hydroclimatic and thermodynamic conditions across the Laurentian Great Lakes have changed in ways that represent profound state shifts. In the late 1990s, for example, research shows that the Lakes experienced not only a persistent shift in surface water temperatures, but in total lake heat content and evaporative water loss as well. Related research has shown that ice cover across the Lakes experienced a similar phase shift, posing important questions for the coastal water resources management community about whether to plan for long-term trends in hydroclimatic conditions, or to anticipate modes of variability that guide shifts between alternate states. Here, we present new research identifying relationships between continental climate teleconnections and regional coastal ice cover dynamics. This work explores the application of novel statistical modeling tools (including the use of change-point and survival models) to identify state shifts, and to improve the potential for incorporating them in forecasts and future planning scenarios.