Global Assessment of Intermittency and Reliability of Future Photovoltaics

As photovoltaic power is expanding rapidly worldwide, it is imperative to assess its promise as a future reliable energy source. While a great deal of research has been devoted to trends of mean solar radiation, less attention has been paid to its intermittent character, a key challenge when compounded with uncertainties related to climate variability. Using both satellite data and climate model outputs, here we characterize solar radiation statistics to assess future photovoltaic reliability. Our results show the relationship between the future power supply and long-term trends of mean solar radiation are highly nonlinear, thus making power reliability less sensitive to the fluctuations of mean solar radiation in wet regions. This highlights how reliability analysis must be conducted in a comprehensive manner accounting for the impacts of climate change on solar energy intermittency.