Future Water Indiana: Climate change impacts on water quantity in the Wabash River Basin

The Prepared for Environmental Change (PfEC) Grand Challenge project at Indiana University is addressing the challenge of climate change adaptation and mitigation through a multi-discipline study spanning the hydrological, atmospheric, ecological, and social sciences. To investigate future freshwater quantity in Indiana, we developed a calibrated regional-scale watershed model of the Wabash River Basin using the USDA Soil-Water Assessment Tool combined with statistically downscaled climate projections from an ensemble of 10 global climate models. Results show that by the 2050s (2041-2070) there will be less stream flow in summer and fall and more stream flow in winter and spring. These seasonal changes will coincide with an increase in annual evapotranspiration and a decrease in summer soil moisture and ground water recharge. Overall, this research shows that summer water availability in Indiana is likely to decrease in the future - which will likely lead to increased water management challenges in this historically water-rich region.

One of the challenges for successful climate change adaptation is that it requires changes to both how science is conducted and how scientific results are communicated. Therefore, as part of this study, we have also developed a science gateway to more effectively communicate climate change impacts on water resources in Indiana. This science gateway utilizes Indiana University's High Performance Computing cyberinfrastructure and the NSF-funded Extreme Science and Engineering Discovery Environment. Utilities and scripts have been developed to automate climate change scenario modeling and post-processing of model results, creating a streamlined process that can be used to analyze additional climate and land use scenarios. Model results can be accessed via a SQL database and explored through interactive maps, charts, and tables, enabling the science gateway to serve as a platform for future collaboration and service to a wide audience.