Assessment of climate impact and irrigation activities on wheat yield in the Mid-Latitude Region

Uncertainties in global climate change affect the unbalance of water resources. For predictable and reliable crop production, water irrigation is considered necessary. However, excessive extraction of water resource increases water scarcity. In this study, we present how climate change and irrigation activities influence wheat yield for agriculture in the Mid-Latitude Region (MLR). The crop model AquaCrop from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) was modified to run for two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) in two circumstances. The two circumstances included one assumption that there is only climate impact and another that there are climate impact and adequate irrigation. The result showed that adequate water irrigation is necessary for increasing the capacity for agricultural productivity and sustainability. However, if there is a serious climate change that accelerates the unbalance of water resource, a necessary amount of water irrigation for crop production exceeds the limited amount of water resources. In conclusion, risk management that are adaptive to global climate change can reduce the risk impact for agriculture, only when the necessary amount of water irrigation does not go over the limit of water resource and when we respect the planetary boundaries, and help achieve the sustainable development goals (SDGs) in terms of the water and food nexus.

Acknowledgements: This work was funded by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korea government (MSIT) (No. 2018R1A2B6005682) and supported by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) (No.2017-0014).