Uncertainty from the Perspective of Model Management in Organisations and Society

Uncertainty communication is too frequently approached as a linear task from "experts" to their audience, though admittedly sometimes with feedback and dialogue. From a system-wide perspective, uncertainty is managed and communicated in many ways by many people and groups both within organisations and in society generally. In the water sector, the use of (uncertain) models by catchment managers provides an interesting case. The transparency, credibility and legitimacy of decisions based on models is a core issue, and involves complex interactions between catchment authorities, consultants, water users, water project proponents, media and the public, with widely varying experiences of modelling and model management. This presentation describes the scope of model management and its connections to uncertainty with illustrative examples, with the aim of better understanding and improving communication about uncertainty in water modelling and management.