Future pathways for local food systems and food trade

F ood production is globally one of the main sectors in local freshwater use, and thus, changes in food production patterns have major implications for water resource management. In the future, these patterns are predicted to change due to e.g. climate change, increased competition for resources and technological development in agriculture. At the same time, food consumption preferences change as global population grows and gets wealthier. While changing consumption and production patterns together with the development of trade infrastructure have made food t rade more substantial part of the global food supply systems, promoting "localness" has emerged as a counterforce against increasing globalization. D istance between food production and consumption has become substantial part of many discourses related to localness and food supply systems.

This study provides a modelling driven assessment on the "local"- narratives with future food supply and demand scenarios. The model quantifies the minimum achievable distance to satisfy food demand globally by allocating food flows between food production and food consumption areas. The food flows are simulated by a friction surface model that minimizes global food miles. Different food production and socioeconomic scenarios are used to explore how climate change, population growth, changes in diets and changes in food waste impact the potential "localness" of global food supply systems.

This analysis presents a novel method to analyze the relationship between food production and consumption. Although, our approach yields a very radical view on future trade scenarios, we expect our results to offer food-for-thought for policy makers by assessing the implications that "as local as possible"-scenario has on e.g. the water resource management and the sustainability of the food system. We also provide tools for considering the spatial dependencies of food self-sufficiency on sub-national, country and regional scales.