Assessment of Future Drought Risk Considering Drought Hazard and Socio-Hydrologic Vulnerability

To prevent and prepare for extreme droughts resulting from climate change, the socio-economic impact of drought, as well as the meteorological factors that are the physical hazards causing the drought, should be taken into account. The socio-economic impact of drought can be sustained for many years, so it is essential to produce reasonable outcomes for drought preparedness. In this study, various GCMs based on RCP scenarios were selected to assess the risk of future droughts, and factors representing physical and socioeconomic droughts using multiple statistical data. To assess the future drought risk, the drought hazard index (DHI) was calculated based on drought frequency, severity, and the probability of drought intensity. Drought vulnerability index (DVI) also used population density, agricultural areas, water demands for municipal, agricultural, and industrial sectors. Selected DHI and DVI were used to derive integrated drought risk and were mapped for future drought risk assessments in the sub-basins of the Korean Nakdong River. The study suggested a quantitative approach to identify areas at high risk of drought, which should be the focus of future drought assessments and mitigation strategies.