Avalanche Hazard in the Arctic Zone of Russia

In the Arctic Zone of Russia, where seasonal snow cover is one of the most important components of the environment, the regions endangered by snow avalanches include: Franz Josef Land, Novaya Zemlya, Severnaya Zemlya and Wrangel Island; Mountains at Kola Peninsula; Polar Urals; the Byrranga Mountains; the Putorana Plateau; mountain areas of Yakutia, the Magadan region and Chukotka. Thus, the total avalanche hazard area exceeds 850 ths. sq. km. and continuous economic development of new territories in the Arctic Zone of Russia require understanding of avalanche danger and potential risk.

An assessment of the change in avalanche hazard characteristics (average values of long-term maximum decadal snow height, number of days with snow cover, the avalanche-danger period duration and the frequency of avalanches) was performed at global scale and presented as small-scale maps using existent data (Geography of avalanches, 1992) and the climate projections based on the MRI-CGCM3 model. It is established that, with the implementation of the accepted scenario, despite the widespread increase in air temperature in January in Russia, the snow cover height increases in the Polar Urals, East of Novaya Zemlya and the Putorana Plateau, some territories of the Northeast by the middle of the XXI century. As the result, the avalanche-danger period duration increases in most of these regions. In other regions the decrease in the snow cover height is expected. By the end of the XXI century, a global increase of air temperature will lead to decrease in the snow height and the avalanche-dangerous period duration over most of the Arctic region except some territories in Northeast.

Also, we applied internationally accepted avalanche hazard zoning approach based on numerical modelling of snow avalanches parameters. The large-scale avalanche hazard zoning and risk maps were developed and analyzed in respect to already constructed infrastructure and applied avalanche protection measures.

The research was supported by the RFBR grant № 18-05-60080 "Dangerous nival-glacial and cryogenic processes and their influence on infrastructure in the Arctic".