Historical and Future Changes of High-impact Wind Events in Coastal Alaska

Strong winds are associated with a variety of natural hazards that impact Arctic coastal habitats and communities. Coastal erosion, flooding, forest blowdown and infrastructure damage are examples of these wind-driven hazards. Using 35 years of hourly wind data from 67 stations across Alaska, this project investigates how high-wind events are changing and how they will change into the future. We have evaluated frequencies of high-wind events of various durations at Alaskan coastal communities including Nome, Utqiagvik, Anchorage, Juneau, and Sitka, where impacts from historical occurrences of these events are well documented. At western Alaska coastal locations such as Nome, there have been significantly more high impact wind events in the second half of the historical study period. Other sites such as Juneau show little or no change over the time period. We have also analyzed future projections from the Weather Researching and Forecasting (WRF) model to assess whether these events may become more or less frequent and/or severe in the coming decades. The late-century changes can be interpreted in the context of shifts in the subarctic storm tracks. Finally, the changing nature of winds has implications for the future of renewable energy in Alaskan coastal villages. We have evaluated the variability and trends of wind energy potential in these locations to support studies of the feasibility of wind energy development across Alaska.