Global crude oil refining: carbon intensity and mitigation potential

The refining industry plays a key role in maintaining a stable global energy market. It is also the third-largest global source of stationary greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. With a volatile heavy crude supply and an increasing excess global refining capacity, the refining industry is facing challenges in making climate sensitive refining choices while preserving tight profit margins. This study presents the first evaluation of carbon intensity (CI) of global crude oil refining using bottom-up engineering-based refinery modeling of 343 individual crude oils, processed in 478 refineries, located in 83 countries, and representing 93% of global crude oil refining throughput in 2015. The volume-weighted average global refining CI is 40.5 kg CO₂eq bbl^-1. Also, based on the projected oil consumption under IPCC 2 °C scenarios, we quantify that the industry can save a total of 72-94 Gt CO₂eq over the 2020-2100 period, representing 10% of the remaining carbon budget.