Rapid Shifts in Maritime Continent Precipitation Regime
Abstract
Recent changes in precipitation regime in the Maritime continent is a subject of ongoing discussion. In this study, evidence of precipitation regime shift during the mid-1970s in the Northern Hemispheric part of Maritime continent is demonstrated. Observing regime shift are made possible by using a new comprehensive dataset of daily precipitation records (South-East Asian Climate Assessment and Dataset) and applying a novel Bayesian approach for regime shift detection. Significant changes in precipitation distribution observed in the Northern Hemispheric part of Maritime Continent after the detected regime shift event in the mid-1970s. More specifically, dry days became up to 10% more frequent in some regions. However, no precipitation regime shift detected in Southern Hemisphere but gradual increase in the number of dry days was observed. Detected precipitation regime shift linked to the SST anomalies induced by the cycles of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The in-phase occurrence of ENSO and PDO creates a statistically different pattern of precipitation and SST anomalies compare to the ENSO cycle accompanied by neutral PDO. Decadal PDO cycle is driving frequency of occurrence of PDO-ENSO in-phase events and is a likely reason behind the rapid shift in precipitation regime in the Maritime continent.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2019
- Bibcode:
- 2019AGUFM.A43I3059E
- Keywords:
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- 3322 Land/atmosphere interactions;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES;
- 3373 Tropical dynamics;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES;
- 4504 Air/sea interactions;
- OCEANOGRAPHY: PHYSICAL