The Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System version 2 (CanSIPSv2)

Version 2 of the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPSv2) began producing Environment and Climate Change Canada's operational seasonal forecasts from August 2019. As for the predecessor CanSIPS system, CanSIPSv2 forecasts are based on a two-model ensemble and have a 12-month range. CanSIPSv2 models consist of GEM-NEMO, which couples the GEM weather prediction model to a NEMO (ORCA1) ocean component and CICE 4.0 sea ice component, and CanCM4i which is a version of the CanSIPS CanCM4 model having improved sea ice and ocean initialization. This presentation will outline the CanSIPSv2 models and the procedures used to initialize them, as well as the performance of CanSIPSv2 which generally improves on that of CanSIPS, especially for the first season and for prediction of sea ice. CanSIPSv2 data access, forecast products, and contributions to the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and other forecast compendia are described.