Tropical-Like Cyclones: Extreme Value Analysis and Risk Exposed Areas

The Mediterranean Sea is a region characterized by intense cyclonic activity with a important impact in human life. In this framework, there is a growing interest in the nature and mechanisms of cyclones with tropical characteristics in this region. The present work focuses on the quantification of the risk exposed areas, affected by Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones (Medicanes). In addition, their return periods is further studied and analyzed. For the needs of the study, documented medicanes during a 21-years period are simulated through an online coupled atmospheric and wave modeling system in a high resolution setup. The parameters employed for the analysis are wind speed and surface gust as well as significant wave height.

It is found that risk exposed areas are located in central and western Mediterranean. Especially, higher and more frequent winds associated with the event evolution are present in the Gulf of Leon. A similar behavior is observed with wave as they are mainly wind driven. These results not only present a scientific interest, but also can be a useful tool in early warning systems, civil protection and reinsurance.