Projections of Tropical Cyclones in Western North Pacific under Climate Change: Using a New Genesis Potential Index
Abstract
A new genesis potential index (GPI) including oceanic parameters is employed to project the potential changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity over Western North Pacific posed by climate change. The GPI is evaluated for the period of 1979-2017 by comparing with the observed best-track data of TCs and the GPI created by Emanuel (2010). The analysis of the impacts on the TC activity reveals a pronounced seasonal shift of TC activity in a warmer climate for both the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenarios, with an increase in TC activity during winter while a decrease in summer.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2019
- Bibcode:
- 2019AGUFM.A21V2719G
- Keywords:
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- 0315 Biosphere/atmosphere interactions;
- ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION AND STRUCTURE;
- 0360 Radiation: transmission and scattering;
- ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION AND STRUCTURE;
- 3372 Tropical cyclones;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES;
- 4313 Extreme events;
- NATURAL HAZARDS