A Multi-model Analysis of 'Little Ice Age' Climate over China

We investigate the climate over China during the 'Little Ice Age' (LIA; from 1450 to 1850 CE) against the background of the last millennium (from 850 to 1850 CE) by analyzing nine climate models within the framework of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (PMIP3) and the ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model for the last millennium (CESM-LME). The surface air temperature over China declined over time during the last millennium, with multi-decadal to centennial variations superimposed on the long-term cooling. Relative to the climatology of the last millennium, the annual temperature during the LIA decreased over the country, with an average of -0.07°C for the median of the PMIP3 models. Different magnitudes of cooling occurred in all seasons except spring. The cooling over China during the LIA was largely attributed to changes in volcanic eruptions and land use, while the change in orbital parameters played a role on a seasonal scale. The precipitation over China during the LIA decreased for the annual mean and summer and autumn but slightly increased in winter and spring. Model-data comparisons indicate that the models reproduced the colder and drier LIA climate over China reasonably, although there are some differences in certain aspects.