The drag-based model (DBM) for heliospheric propagation of ICMEs is a widely used simple analytical model which can predict ICME arrival time and speed at a given heliospheric distance (Vr_nak et al., 2013, SolPhys). It is based on the assumption that the heliospheric propagation of ICMEs, is solely under the influence of MHD drag, where ICME propagation is determined based on CME properties as well as the properties of the ambient solar wind. The current version of the DBM is operational as part of ESA's SSA programme (http://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/graz-dbm-federated). The DBM takes into account the ICME geometry to track the whole leading edge of an ICME, it can estimate whether or not an ICME will reach the observer and calculate the transit time and impact speed. To estimate the uncertainty for a single event, Drag-Based Ensemble Model (DBEM) was developed (Dumbovic et al., 2018, ApJ) which utilizes an ensemble of the observation-based CME input and synthetic values of the ambient solar wind speed and drag parameter. Using multiple runs with different input parameters, distributions of predicted arrival times and speeds are obtained allowing to forecast the confidence in the likelihood of the ICME arrival. The DBEM was further developed to an on-line application to provide the real-time CME forecast, which is currently in a test phase, and will soon be a part of ESA-SSA Heliospheric Weather Expert Service Group (http://swe.ssa.esa.int/heliospheric-weather). We test the model and the on-line application using observations and compare the performance with other CME propagation models.
42nd COSPAR Scientific Assembly
- Pub Date:
- July 2018