Calculating normal tissue complication probabilities and probabilities of complicationfree tumour control from stochastic models of population dynamics
Abstract
We use a stochastic birthdeath model for a population of cells to estimate the normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) under a particular radiotherapy protocol. We specifically allow for interaction between cells, via a nonlinear logistic growth model. To capture some of the effects of intrinsic noise in the population we develop several approximations of NTCP, using KramersMoyal expansion techniques. These approaches provide an approximation to the first and second moments of a general firstpassage time problem in the limit of large, but finite populations. We use this method to study NTCP in a simple model of normal cells and in a model of normal and damaged cells. We also study a combined model of normal tissue cells and tumour cells. Based on existing methods to calculate tumour control probabilities, and our procedure to approximate NTCP, we estimate the probability of complication free tumour control.
 Publication:

arXiv eprints
 Pub Date:
 March 2018
 arXiv:
 arXiv:1803.08595
 Bibcode:
 2018arXiv180308595H
 Keywords:

 Quantitative Biology  Populations and Evolution;
 Condensed Matter  Statistical Mechanics;
 Quantitative Biology  Tissues and Organs
 EPrint:
 27 pages, 5 figures, 4 tables