Differential Impacts of 1.5 and 2 °C Warming on Extreme Events Over China Using Statistically Downscaled and Bias-Corrected CESM Low-Warming Experiment
Abstract
Using statistically downscaled and bias-corrected CESM (Community Earth System Model) 11-member ensemble, we investigate the changes in precipitation and temperature extremes over China in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer climates. Most regions will experience a significant increase in wet extreme indices accompanied by fewer consecutive dry days under both warming targets. An additional 0.5 °C warming may result in stronger increases in wet extreme indices over most subregions and weak decreases over North China, although the grid point-level changes between the two scenarios are mostly nonsignificant. A robust increase in extreme high-temperature events and TNn (the coldest night) is found across China at a 2 °C relative to 1.5 °C scenario. Compared to a 2 °C world, a 0.5 °C less warming avoids 32-34% of the increases in the frequency and intensity of temperature extremes in China, particularly over Northeast China.
- Publication:
-
Geophysical Research Letters
- Pub Date:
- September 2018
- DOI:
- 10.1029/2018GL079272
- Bibcode:
- 2018GeoRL..45.9852Y
- Keywords:
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- 1.5 and 2 °C global warming;
- statistical downscaling;
- extreme climate indices;
- China