A Framework Approach to Modelling the Risk of Extreme Geomagnetic Space Weather Events
Abstract
Extreme space weather represents a significant threat to infrastructure resilience and consequently carries the risk of considerable socio-economic impact. In particular, although there is still some disagreement as to the technological footprint, it is widely accepted that the impact of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) on power grids caused by extreme geomagnetic activity is of key importance. Consequently, a major challenge in space-weather modelling is to first develop realistic scenarios for rare extreme events, and then to model these scenarios in such a way as to establish their likely impact on particular regions subsequently leading to an assessment of probable economic impact.
In order to address this challenge here, we describe a new framework methodology for modelling extreme geomagnetic storm events by focusing on geomagnetic substorm occurrence within an extreme event. Representative scenarios for 1-in-10, 1-in-30, and 1-in-100 year events are derived from the real cases of the Halloween 2003, Quebec 1989, and Carrington 1859 severe geomagnetic storms. Using the global magnetospheric model Gorgon, we examine the magnetospheric and ground response to representative extreme individual substorm events for different locations, focusing in particular on the sensitivity to onset time in the context of current forecast accuracy. Furthermore, in view of the fact that the internal field may undergo non-negligible change on the, e.g., 100-year return period timescale of a Carrington-level event, the sensitivity of the magnetospheric response to changes in the internal field is also examined. In this way the probable duration and geographical footprint is localised. Finally, developing appropriate resilience measures for extreme space weather requires the economic impact to be well quantified. We discuss how the presented framework methodology can be used to naturally derive calculations of economic impact, including international spill-over, with illustrative calculations provided for the European sector. We conclude by outlining remaining challenges and opportunities for further development of this framework approach, both in the physical and economic analysis.- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2018
- Bibcode:
- 2018AGUFMSM51A..05E
- Keywords:
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- 4313 Extreme events;
- NATURAL HAZARDSDE: 7924 Forecasting;
- SPACE WEATHERDE: 7934 Impacts on technological systems;
- SPACE WEATHERDE: 7954 Magnetic storms;
- SPACE WEATHER