Uncertainty Assessment of Radiation Belt Models at CCMC

The radiation belt models at CCMC include the Radiation Belt Environment (RBE) model and its variants such as CIMI (Comprehensive Inner Magnetosphere-Ionosphere) and its coupling to SWMF (Space Weather Modeling Framework). In addition, the VERB (Versatile Electron Radiation Belt) model has become available.

We will perform model runs with two selected intervals: the 2017 April 15 - April 30 period driven primarily by high speed solar-wind streams, and the interval centered around 2017 September 10 primarily affected by two CMEs in succession. The reason for such selection is multifold: 1) high flux levels of a few MeV electrons were observed during both events, therefore high chances of internal charging risks; 2) they represent different solar wind drivers; 3). Availability of more observations. Energetic electron fluxes at 1 MeV and 2 MeV will be compared to observations from Van Allen Probes, Arase and GPS satellites. In addition, energy spectra characterization and its evolution will also be one focus of our study. Energy spectra analysis is often overlooked, but they are important input to engineering models quantifying charging risks. The uncertainty analyses will be carried out with regard to these quantities (fluxes at certain energies and energy spectra) by carefully varying model settings/parameters.