Predicting Sunspot Cycle 25 Using a Data Driven Solar Magnetic Field Simulations of Century Scale

Solar magnetic activity strongly influences the space weather condition in heliosphere at different time scales: on one hand, via short-lived but high energetic events such as solar flares, coronal mass ejections, geomagnetic storms and on the other, by modulating the overall heliospheric magnetic and particulate flux output on decadal timescale. As space weather studies have gradually gained impetus predicting the strength of future solar cycle has become an important yet challenging scientific objective. The intrinsic stochastic nature of the solar convection zone limits the predictability up to one cycle. Physics-based predictions can be achieved by utilizing solar dynamo models with precise knowledge of the poloidal magnetic field at cycle minimum. Here we present a methodology to extend the predictive time window by first using a Surface Flux Transport (SFT) simulations to generate the probable poloidal field at cycle 24 minimum and eventually implementing this in a dynamo model to predict the strength and peak timing of solar cycle 25.