Statistical Modeling of DW1 Tidal Variability in the MLT Region

In this research we investigate the tidal variability of DW1 as a function of the inter-annual variations such as solar flux, QBO, and ENSO, and seasonal harmonics (12, 6, and 3 months) based on the multiple linear regression model. we then further investigate to predict day to day tidal variability of the DW1 using an empirical statistical model based on vector auto-regression (VAR). We will present the process to build the model using inter annual variations and statistical properties of the tidal variability on different time scales using Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) temperature observations in the Mesosphere and lower Thermosphere (MLT) region and extended Canadian Middle Atmospheric Model (eCMAM) data.