Estimating the Economic Value of Scientific Research on the Biological Carbon Pump

A great deal of uncertainty surrounds estimates of the amount of organic carbon sequestered by the global oceans each year. Organic carbon sequestration, which occurs through a mechanism known as the biological carbon pump (BCP), has been estimated at between 5-12 PgC per year. Future marine scientific research on carbon cycling through the BCP could lead to a reduction in this uncertainty. Importantly, improved estimates of ocean carbon sequestration could contribute to the design of more accurate CO₂ emission control targets. Here, we developed estimates of the economic value of information that could result from the further scientific study of carbon sequestered by the BCP. By employing a Bayesian value-of-information approach and applying the social cost of carbon (SCC) from the DICE-2016R model, we quantified the expected economic damages of atmospheric CO₂ accumulation, both with and without new information on the sequestration of carbon in the oceans. We found that the economic value of information on the ocean sequestration of carbon was very large, on the order of tens of billions of dollars, and this value increased with the accuracy of prediction. Our study highlighted the socioeconomic importance of conducting marine scientific research in order to make better-informed decisions regarding our responses to climate change.