Perceptions of Social Consensus Relate to Prioritization and Support of Climate Policy

People develop attitudes, in part, based on their social interactions and expectations. This study assesses the relationship between social consensus perceptions and policy support as mediated by climate change belief certainty using two different causational models for processing of risk information. Among a representative sample of Maryland adults surveyed in 2015 (n=1,547), nearly half underestimated the extent of the social consensus about climate change within their region, state, and country. Mediation analysis showed significant indirect effects of social consensus perceptions at all three scales on climate and energy policy prioritization and support ("information model"), but also similar effects in the reverse model ("worldview model"). The results of this study have important implications for communication of controversial science. Evidence in support of both models suggests the need for further research to deduce under which conditions each is more likely to predominate. Consensus information may be more appropriate for some audiences than others.