Linking Scientific Research with Stakeholder Participation for Improved Water Supply Forecasting in the Upper Gunnison River, Colorado
Abstract
The Colorado River is a major water source and economic engine for seven western U.S. states. The majority of its water originates in snow-dominated headwaters of Colorado, Utah and Wyoming. These headwater basins are considered especially vulnerable to climate change. The Upper Gunnison River (UG) is a significant tributary of the Colorado River and is an important component of the Colorado River Storage Project. Climate induced non-stationarity in system behavior is pushing current water supply forecast models toward greater uncertainty. This compounds the difficulties in managing the river system for diverse water uses, planning for anticipated mid-century supply gaps as well as meeting downstream legal compact obligations. The Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Science Focus Area (SFA) and its collaborating institutions are conducting research in the UG with a focus on how climate induced changes in hydrology and vegetation affect non-linear export of water and solutes. Research relies on stakeholder participation for feedback and support on environmental monitoring, as well as a direct link to management planning decisions being conducted as part of the Colorado Water Plan. We highlight ongoing research done in conjunction with the Colorado Water Conservation Board and the Upper Gunnison River Water Conservancy District for improved observations of snow accumulation and melt across spatial and temporal scales. These observations then inform integrated hydrologic models for better constraint on water and energy budget partitioning and improved water supply forecasting. Specifically, we will present ESP forecasts for 2017 (wet) and 2018 (dry) water years as an assessment of experimental National Water Model performance with, and without, NASA's Airborne Snow Observatory as input. The iterative approach between research planning and stakeholder priorities allows scientific outcomes to benefit the largest possible group and inform policy for improved water and environmental management of these critical headwater systems.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2018
- Bibcode:
- 2018AGUFMPA11A..11C
- Keywords:
-
- 1630 Impacts of global change;
- GLOBAL CHANGEDE: 1637 Regional climate change;
- GLOBAL CHANGEDE: 6304 Benefit-cost analysis;
- POLICY SCIENCESDE: 6309 Decision making under uncertainty;
- POLICY SCIENCES