A human-hazard integrated city model for dynamic vulnerability assessment

Rising numbers of people in urban areas are becoming increasingly vulnerable to threats from natural hazards under the rapid urbanization and climate change. The negative effects of natural hazards on human society are usually amplified due to the compounding interactions from multi-hazard chains, such as earthquake, flood, typhoon, etc. Considering the complicated interactions of natural hazards and socioeconomic systems, a holistic, systematic and integrated city model with a diverse range of natural hazards in a multi-hazard context is required. This study aims to propose a human-hazard integrated city model for dynamic multi-hazards vulnerability assessment. The rainfall-triggering natural hazards (including urban flood, landslide and fluvial flood) have been modelled and their integrated dynamic vulnerability is investigated. The multi-hazards have been analyzed within a unified framework through a dynamic method. The city model includes the following key components: 1) a GIS module that provides a spatial expression and analysis framework; 2) an ABM module that covers a human activity model, human adaption in hazard environment, and a city network model (including road and water networks); 3) an economy simulation module that analyzes the interactions between different industries and their input-output ratios; 4) a hazard module that models the dynamic process of individual and integrated rainfall-triggering multi-hazards; 5) an assessment module that estimates the dynamic vulnerability of natural hazards.