Nature and Nature-Based Coastal Protection: ​Towards a Real Time Coastal Protection Forecast System​

Coastal communities along the US mid-Atlantic region have been repeatedly affected by storm surge causing structural damage and flooding. Among different alternatives to prevent damages and flooding due to storm surge, natural and nature-based solutions, such as coastal marshes, are gaining importance as a form of coastal protection. This study develops a real-time forecasting framework to investigate the coastal protection services provided by natural areas in the Chesapeake Bay. The suitability of the numerical model X-Beach in representing wave attenuation by vegetation in coastal salt marshes is investigated. By combining field-surveyed vegetation characteristics of the area and the use of numerical models we provide a better understanding of the interactions between these natural ecosystems and the hydrodynamics occurring during severe storm events. Finally, the calibrated model compares the predicted inundation with and without vegetation, and real-time future forecasts on the flood protection services of these natural areas are generated. This system demonstrates the daily benefits and coastal protective services of these natural systems providing decision makers a valuable tool to support analysis.