Seasonal malaria forecasts over South Africa using the VECTRI model

South Africa has a target of eliminating malaria by year 2020. So far, it has successfully eradicated malaria from most parts of the country except the north-eastern province. Economic burden on the individuals and the governments due to malaria is substantial and is estimated by the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), USA to be about US $12 billion per year worldwide. Successful forecasting of the malaria few months in advance would reduce the economic burden on the governments. In this study we used the numerical model VECTRI (VECtor borne disease community model of ICTP, TRIeste) for forecasting the malaria cases over South Africa. The dynamically downscaled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and seasonal forecasts from the SINTEX-F (Scale Interaction Experiment-Frontier) model initialized in September were used to forecast the malaria cases during December-February.

The results indicate the VECTRI model can capture the spatial distribution of the malaria cases over the north-eastern province of South Africa realistically, though the model has biases in simulating malaria in the interior regions of South Africa.