Predictions of Shoreline Position and Implications to Future Sea Turtle Nesting Availability

The decadal prediction of coastal shorelines is paramount to understanding the future vulnerability and resiliency of coastal infrastructure, habitat, and recreational areas. Drivers of shoreline change vary spatially and temporally and can be hydrodynamic (e.g., waves, tides, surge, sea level-rise), geomorphic (e.g., sediment type, nearshore geology), and anthropogenic (e.g., beach nourishments, structures impeding sediment delivery). Unfortunately, few models can capture this broad range of potential drivers, or rely on tuning numerous model coefficients for specific data sets. Here, we present a forecasting methodology that relies on historical observations that inherently include the time-varying integration of these drivers to predict the future shoreline position and an estimate of the prediction uncertainty. The methodology is tested along different beaches in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean that vary in the level of coastal development, oceanographic conditions, and sediment characteristics. In addition to testing the forecast capability, we also compare the historical shoreline change to the past response of sea turtle nesting to look for correlations between habitat availability and ecosystem response. Understanding this coupled physical-biological system will aid in determining the future implications of the predicted shoreline change on an important species that relies on a healthy and resilient coastal environment.