Evaluation of Impacts and Variability of Projected Climate Change Scenarios on Heating and Cooling Resources for Industrial Broiler Chicken Farming in the Southeastern U.S.

Poultry consumption in the U.S. has increased in recent decades, a trend that is expected to continue for years to come. Industrial poultry production is a resource-intensive activity due to specific indoor temperature requirements to ensure optimal chicken growth. The energy consumption to maintain this ideal microclimate demands substantial operating expenses that are subject to climate conditions. Then, commercial broiler chicken production is vulnerable to increased temperatures. This study evaluates impacts of climate change on future heating and cooling demands and energy costs in a typical commercial broiler house in the Southeastern U.S. To estimate such demands, we developed a simplified thermodynamic model that uses air temperature as input data. We then used this model to run temperature data from twenty general circulation models (GCMs) under business-as-usual (RCP 8.5) and moderate (RCP 4.5) climate change scenarios. Our results indicate that increased temperatures from climate change scenarios by 2050 will cause energy for ventilation increases of 6% (RCP 4.5) and 10% (RCP 8.5); energy for heating reductions of 10% (RCP 4.5) and 13% (RCP 8.5) on average with respect to 2017. Furthermore, these changes will result in a reduction of average total energy costs (combined ventilation and heating energy demands) per batch of 30,000 chickens of 5% (from 1,880 to 1,780), under RCP 4.5, and 8% (from 1,870 to 1,720), under RCP 8.5, by 2050. However, such energy costs reductions come at the expense of additional evaporative cooling water demand increases by 54% (RCP 4.5) and 76% (RCP 8.5) on average by 2050. These results suggest that incentives and public policies for increasing energy and water consumption efficiency are crucial in order to mitigate potential vulnerabilities to power and water constraints in the region.