What is the Best Earth Observation Product for Predicting Regional Grain Yields in Food Insecure Countries?

In East Africa accurate crop production predictions can help save lives and protect livelihoods. Regional grain yield forecasts can inform decisions regarding the availability and prices of key staples, food aid, and large humanitarian responses. Here we develop and evaluate sub-national grain yield forecasts for two severely food insecure countries: Kenya and Somalia. These empirical forecasts use remotely sensed earth observations. We identify, for a given region and time of year, which product is the best indicator for end-of-season maize yields. We find that the most accurate predictions can be made for high producing areas but that the relationship between production and forecast accuracy diminishes in areas with yields averaging greater than one metric ton per hectare. While the best predictor varies, in many cases accurate forecasts can be obtained with very early season measures of rainfall, creating opportunities for early and effective intervention.