Early warning of food insecurity in Sub-Saharan Africa: Exploring predictors beyond traditionally used seasonal rainfall forecasts

Food security in several regions of Sub-Saharan Africa is tied to climate as the agriculture is still mostly rain-fed; therefore traditionally well-deserved attention has been given to improving seasonal scale rainfall forecasts to guide the early warning of food insecurity in the region. Major strides have been made in the recent decades for improving seasonal scale rainfall forecast skill, yet a lack of skill at seasonal scales limits their operational usage for early warning of food insecurity. Here we report on several ongoing analyses that explore the usage of non-conventional climatic and hydrologic predictors to support early warning of food insecurity by leveraging advanced earth observations, hydrologic models, and sub-seasonal scale forecasts. This presentation focuses on three novel avenues for providing early warning of food security: (i) Forecasts and observations of onset of growing season to provide estimates of end-of-season crop yield estimates. (ii) Sub-seasonal and seasonal scale evaporative demand (an important stressor on available moisture for crop growth) forecasts to provide early warning of looming agricultural drought conditions. (iii) Remotely sensed, modeled, and forecasts of soil moisture and total water storage that can account for antecedent moisture deficits as well as upcoming season's outlook of rainfall and evaporative demand. Preliminary results indicate that (i) greater than 50 million people in Africa live in crop zones where crop water deficits (directly associated with crop yield) are linked to timing of the seasonal onset; (ii) seasonal scale evaporative demand forecasts are promising for early warning of food insecurity in Africa; and (iii) moisture estimates (forecasts as well as real-time estimates) are able to identify major droughts in the region that lead to food insecurity conditions.