Future Emissions Distribution of CO2 and air pollutants in Chinese Iron and Steel Industry by Developing Large-Point-Source(LPS) Downscale Model
Abstract
The crude steel demand has been increasing in China, so that new IS plants are needed. However, in the near- to mid-term future, the Chinese crude steel demand will peak out, thus some IS plants are no longer required. In previous studies, the future correlated impacts of "building" or "closing" plants on geographical scale haven't been considered. Thus, the objectives of this research are as follows; 1) developing a Large-Point-Source (LPS) Downscale Model to provide a decision tool forIS plant planning within national boundaries in China, 2) applying the algorithm to future LPS locations by considering increasing and decreasing trends of crude steel demand projections, and 3) analyzing future emissions distribution profiles of CO2 and air pollutants such as NOx, SOx, PM2.5 and BC. After developing the detailed LPS Downscale Model, the model is applied to analyze future emissions distributions of CO2 and air pollutants up to 2050 estimated by AIM[Enduse] model which is a bottom-up type optimization model. For example, CO2 and air pollutants emissions will decrease in urban area in north due to shutting down facilities but may increase in south due to building new facilities. This study not only can give scientific suggestions for future IS plant location, but also can discuss the environmental pollution on plant level, thus contribute to analyze the environmental, health and economic impacts.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2018
- Bibcode:
- 2018AGUFMGC43F1588L
- Keywords:
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- 0230 Impacts of climate change: human health;
- GEOHEALTHDE: 1630 Impacts of global change;
- GLOBAL CHANGEDE: 6304 Benefit-cost analysis;
- POLICY SCIENCESDE: 6334 Regional planning;
- POLICY SCIENCES