Climate change consequences for Siberia's forest land adaptation in the warming climate of the 21st century

Global simulations have demonstrated the potential for profound effects of climate change on the distribution of terrestrial ecosystems and individual species at all hierarchical levels. We modeled progressions of potential forest types, dominant tree species and agriculture in Siberia during the 21st century. We developed and used large-scale bioclimatic models and statistical crop models to predict forest types and crops in a warming climate. All simulations were run for the baseline period 1961-1990 and for the 2080s. To provide a range of warming we used rcp 2.6 and rcp 8.5 of 20 GCMs from CMIP5 (AR5).

Ecological-bioclimatic modeling projects substantial vegetation changes: biomes shift northwards; area of conifer forest decreases and grasslands increases. Fire and the thawing of permafrost would be the principal mechanisms to shape new biomes. The zone at risk of forest loss in Siberia would extend northwards. Accumulated surface fuel loads together with an increase in severe fire weather would lead to increases in large, high-severity fires, which are expected to facilitate vegetation progression towards equilibrium with the climate. To minimize negative consequences and benefit from climate change in Siberian forests we suggest potential adaptive measures depending on management goals.

The first is a genetic approach to assisting trees and forests to adapt to a changing climate by developing management strategies for seed transfer to locations that would be ecologically suited to the genotypes in future climates. The second strategy is the establishment of agricultural lands in new forest-steppe and steppe habitats, because the forests would retreat northwards.

In the cold climate of Siberia agriculture may benefit from climate warming. Crop production may increase by twofold as climate warms; traditional crops could gradually shift northward and new crops may be introduced in the south, depending on winter and irrigation conditions.