Decreases in Global Beer Supply due to Extreme Drought and Heat

Beer is the most popular alcoholic beverage in the world by volume consumed, and yields of its main ingredient, barley, decline sharply in periods of extreme drought and heat. Yet the vulnerability of beer supply to extreme events under future climate change has never been assessed. Here, we couple a process-based crop model (DSSAT) and a global economic model (GTAP) to evaluate the effects of concurrent drought and heat extremes projected under a range of future climate scenarios from five Global Climate Models (GCMs). We find that the frequency and severity of drought and heat extremes increase under future climate change, and these events are projected to cause substantial decreases in barley yields worldwide. Average yield losses range from 3% to 17% depending on the severity of the conditions. Decreases in global supply of barley lead to proportionally larger decreases in barley used to make beer, and ultimately result in dramatic regional decreases in beer consumption (e.g., -32%) and increases in beer prices (e.g., +193%). Although certainly not the most concerning impact of future climate change, our findings that climate-related weather extremes may threaten the availability and economic accessibility of beer nevertheless adds insult to injury.